Tesla FSD Supervised to Unsupervised: The Technical Milestones Still Needed | Taha Abbasi

Tesla’s Full Self-Driving system continues to improve with every update, but the gap between “supervised” and truly “unsupervised” autonomous driving remains significant. Taha Abbasi, who has tested multiple FSD versions in real-world conditions, examines the specific technical milestones Tesla still needs to hit before removing the human supervisor requirement.

Where FSD Stands Today

FSD V14.2.2.5, released in February 2026, represents Tesla’s most capable autonomous driving software to date. The system handles highway merges, urban intersections, construction zones, and complex multi-lane navigation with impressive consistency. Speed profiles and arrival options in the latest update show Tesla refining the rider experience, not just the driving capability.

But “impressive” and “ready to remove the human” are different standards entirely. As Taha Abbasi has documented through extensive testing, FSD still encounters edge cases — unusual road geometries, ambiguous markings, unexpected obstacles — that require human intervention.

Milestone 1: Edge Case Elimination Below Human Error Rate

The most fundamental requirement is statistical: FSD must demonstrate a lower accident rate per mile than human drivers. Tesla has claimed this milestone for Autopilot (basic lane-keeping and adaptive cruise), but the bar for FSD — which handles complex urban driving — is higher.

The challenge isn’t getting to 99.9% reliability. It’s getting from 99.9% to 99.999% — the “five nines” standard that separates supervised from unsupervised. That last fraction of a percent represents the long tail of edge cases that are individually rare but collectively dangerous.

Milestone 2: Weather Robustness

Tesla’s vision-only system performs excellently in clear conditions but faces challenges in heavy rain, snow, fog, and direct sun glare. For unsupervised operation, the system must handle every weather condition that a licensed human driver is expected to navigate — not just sunny California days.

Taha Abbasi has tested FSD in Utah mountain conditions — snow, ice, low visibility — and found that while the system is cautious (which is good), it occasionally disengages when conditions exceed its confidence threshold. Unsupervised FSD can’t simply stop and wait for better weather.

Milestone 3: Regulatory Approval

Even if Tesla’s technology achieves statistical superiority over human drivers, regulatory approval is a separate and potentially longer process. The NHTSA framework for autonomous vehicles is still evolving, and state-by-state regulations add complexity.

Tesla’s approach — deploying supervised FSD to millions of vehicles and collecting real-world data — gives it an unprecedented dataset for regulatory arguments. No other company has billions of miles of real-world autonomous driving data. But regulators operate on their own timeline.

Milestone 4: Liability Framework

When FSD is supervised, the driver is legally responsible. When it’s unsupervised, liability shifts to Tesla. This isn’t just a legal technicality — it fundamentally changes Tesla’s risk profile and insurance requirements. As Taha Abbasi has analyzed, the insurance implications alone could delay unsupervised deployment even after the technology is ready.

Milestone 5: Remote Intervention Capability

Waymo and Cruise operate with remote human operators who can intervene when their autonomous vehicles encounter situations they can’t handle. Tesla has not publicly deployed a comparable system. For truly unsupervised operation — especially the Cybercab with no steering wheel — some form of remote oversight may be necessary during the transition period.

Realistic Timeline

Taha Abbasi‘s assessment: supervised FSD will continue improving dramatically through 2026. Limited unsupervised deployment (geofenced areas, specific conditions) could begin in late 2026 or 2027. Truly universal unsupervised FSD — anywhere, any condition — is likely a 2028+ reality. The technology is advancing faster than regulation, and that gap will define the timeline.

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About the Author: Taha Abbasi is a technology executive, CTO, and applied frontier tech builder. Read more on Grokpedia | YouTube: The Brown Cowboy | tahaabbasi.com